The hottest real estate recovery may quickly drive

Real estate recovery or rapid drive the start of soda ash industry

if you think that cars and real estate are the main driving forces of economic recovery, then along the logic of increasing car sales, warming up new housing projects, and then transmitting to the upstream, it is time to focus on chemical listed companies. In the field of chemical industry, soda ash production enterprises are the most directly benefited from the recovery of real estate

after automobiles, real estate shoulders the mission of stimulating the economy in the second half of the year. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the new construction area of the real estate industry increased by 54% month on month in June. 43%, a year-on-year increase of 11. 93%, with an explosive growth rate far exceeding the general expectation of the market

the largest downstream demand for soda ash comes from flat glass. The inventory of the glass industry continued to decline month on month in June, and the glass price also rebounded for four consecutive months. In the second quarter, the industry turned losses into profits. It is inferred that the resumption of production of discontinued glass production lines is only a matter of time

in addition, statistics show that more than 10 new glass production projects have been put into operation in the past two months, and the glass production capacity has increased by about 1.6 million tons/year. As the downstream demand of construction, metallurgy and chemical industry is related to the real estate industry, 70% of the demand for soda ash is indirectly related to the real estate industry

from the perspective of cycle, at present, soda ash production enterprises are in deep trouble. In July, the price of soda ash did not rise but fell. At present, the national average level of light soda ash is about 1020 yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda ash is about 1150 yuan/ton, basically hovering near the cost line (at present, the manufacturing cost of soda ash by ammonia soda method and combined soda method is mostly 11, so the requirement for system stiffness is not high, about 00 yuan/ton). The gross profit of most soda ash production enterprises is zero

this industry wide loss is extremely rare in the development history of domestic soda ash industry. However, from another perspective, supported by cost factors, the price of soda ash has been difficult to fall significantly, which also provides a high margin of safety for related listed companies. The latest situation is that the operating performance of most soda ash enterprises turned losses or made small profits in the second quarter, which can be said that the enterprise performance is still at the bottom stage

according to past experience, the year-on-year growth rate of new construction area of real estate is positively correlated with the growth rate of soda ash demand, and is months ahead of the demand for soda ash. This is because glass belongs to exterior wall decoration engineering, which belongs to the middle and late stage of real estate projects. The surge in new construction area in June will drive the demand for soda ash as early as the end of 2009. Because stock investment values expectations, the valuation improvement of relevant soda ash production enterprises may appear ahead of the industry recovery

compared with the chemical industry, the actual humidity will reach 100% or the actual humidity is very different from the target humidity. In other fine molecule industries, the operating rate of soda ash industry is more than 80%, and the problem of excess supply is not as serious as the market imagined. According to the survey, a large number of soda ash projects will be put into operation at the end of 2010 and form output in 2011. In addition, due to cautious consideration, most of the existing soda ash enterprises currently adopt the mode of low inventory and production based on sales. In other words, from 2009 to 2010, once the downstream demand shows explosive growth, the start-up of the soda ash industry may be very rapid

it is very likely that after seeing the sharp increase in the new construction area of the real estate, glass manufacturers will purchase low-cost plastic packaging in advance: materials and additives will make great efforts to "three modernizations" soda ash to prepare for the upcoming demand. Therefore, the explosive demand growth of soda ash will be replaced by the gradual warming of the industry, and this process may have begun. An important indicator to be focused on is the operating rate of soda ash enterprises. Once it warms up, it will first drive the operating rate to increase. At present, the operating rate of the industry is 84%

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